It demonstrates that people think in terms of expected utility relative to a reference point e. Specifically, we derive a model from risksensitive optimal foraging theory to generate an explanation. Last, the applicability of prospect theory to international politics is discussed, and. Levy prospect theory has emerged as a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk and has very recently begun to attract attention in the literature on international relations. Prospect theory deviates from expectedutility theory by positing that how people frame a problem around a reference point has a critical influence on their choices and that people tend to overweight losses with respect to comparable gains, to be riskaverse with respect to gains and riskacceptant with respect to losses, and to respond to probabilities in a nonlinear manner. Theoretical applications and analytical problems jack s. Behavioral models typically integrate insights from psychology. The cognitive revolution and the political psychology of. Article information, pdf download for prospect theory and political.
Prospect theory, a psychological theory of choice under risk, seems very. The chapter also considers some opportunities for theoretical development. This article addresses these questions by discussing some advances in evolutionary biology, behavioural economics, psychology, neuro. Prospect theory and political decision making wiley online library. Their analysis suggests that political leaders are more likely to take risky actions when their vital interests and. Other scholars also use prospect theory to complement rational deterrence theory. In the framing phase, the decision maker constructs a representation of the acts, contingen.
The lion share of decisions by political actors relating to foreign policy are. Prospect theory provides an augmentation to neoclassical economic utility models, and is a. Prospect theory scholars have identified important human decisionmaking biases, but they have been conspicuously silent on the question of the origin of these biases. It is the founding theory of behavioral economics and of behavioral finance, and constitutes one of the first economic. Applications of prospect theory to political science citeseerx. Theory prospect theory distinguishes two phases in the choice process. The implications of prospect theory for human nature and. Prospect theory is a behavioral model that shows how people decide between alternatives that involve risk and uncertainty e.
Prospect theory and political decision making vis 2011. Department of political science, major in politics, philosophy and economics chair of behavioral psychology and economics prospect theory, neuroeconomics and political choice decision making theories for international politics. Prospect theory is the most influential behavioral theory of choice in the social sciences. Prospect theory, neuroeconomics and political choice. Conclusions 165 notes 187 bibliography 225 index 233 front.
Political psychology is an interdisciplinary journal dedicated to the analysis of the interrelationships. Prospect theory and political decision making barbara vis, 2011. Studying political decisionmaking using prospect theory. Prospect theory download ebook pdf, epub, tuebl, mobi. C u m u lative representation of uncertainty a m o s t v e r s k y stanford u niversity, department o f psychology, stanford, c a 943052 d a n ie l k a h n e m a n u niversity o f california a t berkeley, department o f p sychology, berkeley, c a 94720 key w o rd s. Prospect theory, an empirically correct theory of choice under risk that deals precisely with this condition, therefore seems to have much to offer political science. Power and prospect theory expected utility theory originally formulated by daniel bernoulli 1954 in the 18 th century, suggests that individuals calculate risks with complete accuracy.
Nwogugu, towards multifactor models of decision making and risk. Political psychology is an interdisciplinary journal dedicated to the analysis of the interrelationships between psychological and political processes. Risk is a central feature of political decision making. It addresses the latest changes in the psychological literature on risk, and tries to combine the notions of emotion and affect into risk perception and management. The reliance on hypothetical choices raises obvious questions regarding the validity of the method and the generalizability of the results. Their analysis suggests that political leaders are more likely to take risky actions when their vital interests and political legitimacy are seriously threatened. Pdf studying political decisionmaking using prospect theory. Ffirst, in prospect theory, people derive utility from irst, in prospect theory, people derive utility from gains and losses, measured relative measured relative tto some reference point, rather than from absolute levels of wealth. Available formats pdf please select a format to send. Methodological innovations in the section political psychology. Prospect theory involves two phases in the decision making process. Prospect theory has been applied to a number of cases in political science, particularly in the area of international relations, and also in the realm of comparative politics.
Prospect theory, also called lossaversion theory, psychological theory of decisionmaking under conditions of risk, which was developed by psychologists daniel kahneman and amos tversky and originally published in 1979 in econometrica. Political psychology, international relations abstract political psychology in international relations has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past two decades, mirroring the broader changes occurring in ir itself. Here we create a model that shows preferences consistent with prospect theory may have an origin in evolutionary psychology. The authors take the innovative step of integrating the neoclassical realist framework in political science and prospect theory in psychology. Prospect theory is a behavioral economic theory developed by daniel kahneman. Applications of framing and loss aversion, political psychology 253.
Prospect theory and foreign policy analysis in the asia. Key words blame avoidance causation prospect theory welfare state reform. The prospect theory is an economics theory developed by daniel kahneman and amos tversky in 1979. Download prospect theory or read online books in pdf, epub, tuebl, and mobi format. Prospect theory teaches us that political actors will only undertake risky reforms if. Applications of prospect theory to political science. Second, prospect theory itself is then discussed in detail in order to place the theory in its appropriate psychological and political context.
Applications of prospect theory to political science springerlink. On the evolutionary origin of prospect theory preferences. Although international relations theorists who study security have used prospect theory extensively, americanists, comparativists, and political economists have shown little interest. The article shows that there is increasing evidence that prospect theory preferences have an evolutionary origin and that these preferences extend to collective decision making. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise cambridge core to connect with your account. An axiomatic analysis of cumulative prospect theory is presented in the appendix. It draws upon theory and research on biopsychology, neuroscience, personality, psychopathology, evolutionary psychology, social psychology, developmental psychology, cognitive psychology, and intergroup relations. Most of the evidence of anomalies in expected utility is based on experimental studies in social psychology and experimental economics, but laboratory findings.
This chapter discusses risk assessment and prospect theor, first defining and describing prospect theory and its contributions to literature in detail. Last, the applicability of prospect theory to international politics is discussed, and some denitions, issues of operationalization, and a brief. Political psychology, at the most general level, is an application of what is known about human psychology to the study of politics. The first experiment tested hypotheses regarding the impact of prospect framing on group polarization, but these were only weakly supported. The implications of prospect theory for human nature and values the implications of prospect theory for human nature and values jervis, robert 20040401 00.
The field draws on diverse disciplinary sources including cultural and psychological anthropology, cognitive psychology, clinical psychology, economics, history, international relations, philosophy, political science, political. The pattern of results was essentially identical to the results obtained from israeli subjects. Prospect theory assumes that losses and gains are valued differently, and thus individuals make decisions based on perceived gains instead of perceived losses. Doesnt like his bestselling book thinking fast, thinking slow attitude. In international relations, the theory has been invoked to try to explain decisionmaking that involves seemingly irrational risks, such as continuing to engage in sunk costs. The microfoundations of international relations theory. A further critique of cumulative prospect theory and. His work with amos tversky, namely prospect theory, provides a way to describe how people make decisions based on psychological valuation of potential gains and losses kahneman and tversky, 1979. Prospect theory and risk assessment oxford handbooks. Prospect theory and political decision making barbara.
Leadership, regime security, and chinas policy toward. Three experiments with undergraduate samples were conducted in an effort to clarify the advantages and limitations of prospect theory as adapted to explain political behavior. The valve includes a valve body having a central flow passage and a ball valve element for opening and closing the passage, hydraulically operable means responsive to surfacecontrolled pressure for opening and closing the ball valve, latch means for releasably. We begin by o ering a datadriven snapshot, analyzing four. Prospect theory is an alternative theory of choice under conditions of risk, and deviates from expected utility theory by positing that people evaluate choices with respect to gains and losses from a reference point. Behavioral economics studies the effects of psychological, cognitive, emotional, cultural and social factors on the decisions of individuals and institutions and how those decisions vary from those implied by classical economic theory behavioral economics is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic agents.
Prospect theorys central finding is that individuals attitude toward risk depends on whether they face losses or gains. For applications of prospect theory in international relations, see farnham 1994. As a 10yearold, he wrote his first essay on the psychology of religion the authors secret. Analysis of the use of prospect theory over the last three decades identifies the scope conditions that enable the predictions of rational choice and psychological theories. Levy1 in this essay i evaluate the potential contribution of prospect theory to our understanding of international relations. Its creators won a nobel prize in economics, and it is largely responsible for the booming field of behavioral economics. Journal of theoretical politics vu research portal vrije. These scope conditions motivate the focus on the heterogeneity of decision. They tend to overweight losses with respect to comparable gains and engage in riskaverse behavior with respect to gains and riskacceptant behavior with respect to losses. In this paper, i argue that insights from prospect theory a descriptively correct, psychological theory of choice under risk can help to explain what drives. The model has been imported into a number of fields and has been used to analyze various aspects of political decisionmaking, especially in international. Prospect theory has emerged as a leading alternative to expected.1589 1591 625 763 499 410 996 168 252 490 640 1539 1097 246 36 1321 451 582 309 1085 1555 1219 1531 313 1456 1366 1046 113 960 1300 635 1350 1349 1503 646 25 213 1084 637 496 1264 1369 485